Excellent post. I also believe that the most important issue for the UK is not what medium-term disruption might have been caused by Brexit, but rather whether long-term the UK can maintain a policy and regulatory framework conducive to growth and more competitive than continental Europe. Based on the 2025-27 forecasts you show, the IMF thinks the answer is yes, which indeed should put the current gloom in some perspective. Separately, would love to hear your take on two aspects: 1. the extent to which Brexit contributed to the labor shortages that are also much discussed, and what the next steps should be; 2 the inflation outlook, and to what extent the inflation challenge in Britain is similar/different from the Eurozone and US. Thanks for sharing these perspectives.
Excellent post. I also believe that the most important issue for the UK is not what medium-term disruption might have been caused by Brexit, but rather whether long-term the UK can maintain a policy and regulatory framework conducive to growth and more competitive than continental Europe. Based on the 2025-27 forecasts you show, the IMF thinks the answer is yes, which indeed should put the current gloom in some perspective. Separately, would love to hear your take on two aspects: 1. the extent to which Brexit contributed to the labor shortages that are also much discussed, and what the next steps should be; 2 the inflation outlook, and to what extent the inflation challenge in Britain is similar/different from the Eurozone and US. Thanks for sharing these perspectives.
I found this so interesting that I cracked into the IMF database to see what else is in there